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After a 2020 Kentucky Derby that not only didn\u2019t have any fans \u2014 but ran in September instead of the first weekend in May, due to COVID-19 related delays \u2014 the 147th \u201cRun for the Roses\u201d is finally here, bringing the horse-racing world back into the correct timeline. With the event getting some semblance of normalcy back, it\u2019s time to make our Kentucky Derby prediction for the 2021 race.<\/p>\n
The oldest continuously held sporting event in U.S. history (and hosted at Louisville, Kentucky\u2019s 1 1\/4-mile dirt track at Churchill Downs), post is set for 6:57 p.m. Eastern (3:57 p.m. Pacific) on NBC. The late, unfortunate scratch of King Fury has trimmed the field to 19 three-year-old fillies, all chomping at the bit to claim the first leg of the coveted Triple Crown. It\u2019s also time to open wallets, with more than $1.9 million in the total win pool as of Friday night through kentuckyderby.com.
\n2021 Kentucky Derby Odds (as of 11 p.m. CST, Friday, April 30)<\/p>\n
Win: Simple; pick the winning horse! [ad_1] After a 2020 Kentucky Derby that not only didn\u2019t have any fans \u2014 but ran in September instead of the first weekend in May, due to COVID-19 related delays \u2014 the 147th \u201cRun for the Roses\u201d is finally here, bringing the horse-racing world back into the correct timeline. With the event getting some semblance […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":2247,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[161,159,40,5,16],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n
\nPlace: Net some return if your horse wins, or finishes in second.
\nShow: Maybe your horse finishes in first, second or third. A safe, low-risk choice.
\nExacta: Sharpen up, and pick the correct order of finish for first and second place.
\nTrifecta: Get slick, and pick the correct order of finish for places 1-3.
\nSuperfecta: Get wild, and pick the correct order of finish for places 1-4.
\nHigh Five: Go absolutely crazy, and pick the correct order of finish for places 1-5.
\nPost 1: Known Agenda, 16-1 (pays $34, to win on $2)
\nPost 2: Like the King, 57-1 ($116)
\nPost 3: Brooklyn Strong, 55-1 ($112)
\nPost 4: Keepmeinmind, 53-1 ($108)
\nPost 5: Sainthood, 43-1 ($88)
\nPost 6: O Besos, 45-1 ($92)
\nPost 7: Mandaloun, 40-1 ($82)
\nPost 8: Medina Spirit, 15-1 ($32)
\nPost 9: Hot Rod Charlie, 7-1 ($16)
\nPost 10: Midnight Bourbon, 15-1 ($32)
\nPost 11: Dynamic One, 45-1 ($92)
\nPost 12: Helium, 51-1 ($104)
\nPost 13: Hidden Stash, 39-1 ($80)
\nPost 14: Essential Quality, 6-5 ($4.40)
\nPost 15: Rock Your World, 9-2 ($11)
\nPost 16: King Fury, scratched (health)
\nPost 17: Highly Motivated, 16-1 ($34)
\nPost 18: Super Stock, 46-1 ($94)
\nPost 19: Soup & Sandwich, 30-1 ($62)
\nPost 20: Bourbonic, 33-1 ($68)
\nFive things to know heading into the race:
\nIn the history of the Kentucky Derby, the No. 17 post \u2014 held this year by 16-1 long-shot Highly Motivated \u2014 has never produced a winner. \u201cIt\u2019s a little farther outside than we would have liked, but there\u2019s a long run into the turn and this horse clearly has a lot of natural speed,\u201d trainee Chad Brown told the Courier Journal\u2019s Jason Frakes. \u201cHopefully we\u2019ll be forward enough to come over and get some position into the first turn.\u201d
\nIt\u2019s incredibly difficult to bet against Bob Baffert, who has six career wins at the Kentucky Derby and three within the last six years behind Triple Crown stud American Pharaoh (2015), Justify (2018) and last year\u2019s stunner in Authentic (2020). He\u2019s got another quality horse in this year\u2019s run with Medina Spirit at 15-1 in the No. 8 post. \u201cOn paper, this son of Prontico will likely be gunned to the lead by John Velazquez, who will look to be among the top flight from the opening gate\u201d writes SI.com\u2019s Frankie Taddeo. \u201cWe could be looking at a repeat of last year with a horse who has run first or second in all five career races.\u201d
\nTodd Pletcher\u2019s filly, Known Agenda, is certainly a contender for the crown \u2014 especially after winning the Florida Derby on March 27 by 2 3\/4 lengths at 5-1 odds (third-best in the Florida Derby field). Unfortunately, Pletcher pulled the No. 1 post for his star, a slot that hasn\u2019t produced a Derby darling since fantastic Ferdinand in 1986. He does have three other horses in this run in Sainthood, Dynamic One and Bourbonic \u2014 but all at 33-1 odds or longer. \u201cOne thing I like about our group overall is, I think they\u2019re designed for the mile and a quarter,\u201d Pletcher told bloodhorse.com\u2019s Frank Angst. \u201cThey\u2019re stoutly bred that way, and I think if we can get lucky and get good trips with them, hopefully, they\u2019ll all be finishing well in the end.\u201d
\nLooking to make a last-second, soft bet for fun? The post-time favorite has won six of the last eight runnings of the Derby, and according to CBSSports.com, that honor will likely belong to Essential Quality at 2-1 as the morning-line favorite. \u201c[EQ] can become just the third horse to win both the Breeders\u2019 Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby, alongside Street Sense (2006 Juvenile, 2007 Derby) and Nyquist (2015 Juvenile, 2016 Derby),\u201d CBS staff noted. For a solid exacta choice, Rock Your World comes in as the odds-on No. 2 at 5-1 in the morning-line selections.
\nLanding a \u201csuperfecta\u201d \u2014 predicting the first four places correctly \u2014 at the Kentucky Derby is quite, quite difficult. But over the last 16 years, it\u2019s a bet that has returned more than $40,000 11 times. \u201cIn 11 of the past 16 years, the $2 superfecta has returned near the $40,000 mark or higher,\u201d notes Mark Midland, of horseracingnation.com. \u201cThe average superfecta payoff from 2005 to 2020 is $145,334, although boosted by the massive payoffs with Country House (2019), Mine That Bird (2009) and Giacomo (2005). But even the $2 trifecta averages $15,779 over that time. And the median $2 trifecta payoff is $3,435 while the median $2 superfecta payoff is still a whopping $57,911.\u201d
\nKentucky Derby Prediction & Pick: Essential Quality
\nAccording to The Weather Channel, race-time conditions should be sunny with a high of 70 degrees, 47% humidity and a 10% chance of rain. It means the track will be in fairly strong condition, and though one shouldn\u2019t expect Secretariat times (1:59 2\/5, 1973, 23 seconds in the final quarter mile), things are favorable for an even, speedy race.
\nBets for Highly Motivated (a favorite from sportsline.com\u2019s Jody Demling), Known Agenda and Medina Spirit will be hard to push to the side, as will long looks at Hot Rod Charlie and Rock Your World, but Essential Quality is the sure selection here for our Kentucky Derby prediction.
\nThe gray colt is a perfect 5-for-5 to start his career, and though he\u2019ll be thoroughly tested by a pretty even field tonight, this is his race to lose.
\n\u201cIt\u2019s certainly possible that Essential Quality will prove to be the best of this bunch and continue the trend of winning favorites,\u201d writes USA Today\u2019s Dan Wolken. \u201cAt this point in his career, the gray colt has done little wrong, winning all five career starts including last year\u2019s Breeders\u2019 Cup Juvenile. But both the speed figures and the eye test suggest that this is a consistent horse who has been maximizing his potential, not a superior animal with amazing upside that we haven\u2019t seen yet.\u201d
\nNeed a flashy, sexy choice to win? Great value can also be found in Highly Motivated, who can make heroic history by breaking the No. 17 post curse.<\/p>\n[ad_2]\n
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